This somewhat provocative title, which is akin to planned obsolescence, remind us, tinged with primary Darwinism, that nothing is immutable. The Roman, the Mongol, the Ottoman, as well as the French or the British, all empires throughout the centuries have suffered the same fate!
In 2022, bond and equity markets posted the worst combined performance since many decades. The war in Ukraine and central banks’ battle against inflation were the main drivers. The final quarter of the year brought some relief.
Obviously, the first half of 2022 has not been rewarding for investors. Between inflation, rising rates and the tense geopolitical context, only commodities have shown a positive return since the beginning of the year. In this environment, the cryptocurrency universe has been no exception. Indeed, the sector showed a high level of correlation to technology stocks over this period.
In January 2021, we presented 5 investment themes for the year. A particular focus was placed on the harmonized, or even correlated evolution of the largest economic blocs’ monetary policies, and its consequences.
Rising public deficits coupled with rising external deficits (twin deficits) have caused the Turkish lira to drop sharply. Since the last financial crisis in 2008, the lira has devalued by about 17% per year against the dollar. Over the period, the parity went from 1.20 to 7.80, thus reaching its historical high against the dollar (i.e. its lowest valuation)! This year, the TRY lost more than 30% against the greenback.